Alberta’s population clock is slowing, but it's still ticking faster than other provinces.

In second quarter data released this morning, the province recorded its 16th consecutive quarterly net inflow from the rest of Canada. That’s keeping population growth higher in Alberta.

At the same time, population growth is easing, mostly due to a net outflow in non-permanent residents (NPRs).* The federal government announced in 2024 that it was scaling back the number of temporary work and study permit holders, and this policy change is evident in the data.

In the second quarter, Alberta’s population grew 0.4% - second only to PEI. That’s still much stronger than the 0.1% national pace, but it is a marked slowdown from the previous two years.

Today, there are more than 5 million Albertans (though, as regular population clock watchers, we already knew this). The official tally as of July 1 is 5,029,346.

Where did the growth come from?

In the second quarter of 2025, Alberta’s population grew by 19,268 (+0.4%). This came from three sources: 

• international migration (7,720);
• interprovincial migration (6,187); and 
• natural increase (5,361).

In 2025, Alberta’s population grew 120,316 for a nation-leading growth rate of 2.5% and well above the national increase of 0.9%.**

Alberta accounted for 31% of Canada’s total population growth over this period despite having 12% of the nation’s population.

Persistent inflows from other provinces

Why is Alberta’s population growing faster than other provinces? A big reason is interprovincial migration.

Over the last year, people came predominately from Ontario and B.C., though the gains were widespread from all provinces. Net inflows have slowed, but remain persistently strong. We have explored this issue in detail, showing that people are coming to Alberta for different reasons than in the past. It’s not driven by the typical energy boom, and our view has long been that relative housing affordability is playing a major role this time around.

Another factor is a higher rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) in Alberta. In the second quarter, Alberta recorded the second largest natural increase after Ontario.   

Broad-based population slowdown on fewer NPRs

Population growth is slowing in Alberta and across Canada primarily due to fewer non-permanent residents (NPRs).*

Canada saw its second largest quarterly decline in NPRs (-58,719) on record. Losses were highly concentrated in Ontario and B.C, with the largest drop coming from international students holding a study permit.

Canada admitted 103,507 immigrants in the second quarter—the lowest second quarter reading since 2021.

As for Alberta, NPRs dropped 3,818 last quarter, with immigration easing to 12,613.  

Implications

Today’s data came in exactly in line with our September forecast of 2.5% population growth in 2025. And we have no reason yet to change our view going forward. We forecast that population growth will slow to 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027.  While easing, we see Alberta’s growth continuing to exceed the national average driven by interprovincial migration, natural increase and a smaller expected decline in NPRs.

Homebuilders have responded to the population boom with record housing starts expected this year. This has been fueled by multi-family units, as builders continue to play catch-up. We see home construction as one key factor pushing Alberta’s economic growth ahead of other provinces this year.

One challenge is adding enough jobs to accommodate the inflows. A fast-growing labour force and a leveling off in employment has pushed up the unemployment rate in the province. We expect the unemployment rate to remain elevated this year (averaging 7.5% in 2025 and 7.4% in 2026).

Tomorrow we will dig into the age profile of migrants to Alberta in 2025. Stay tuned!

*Non-permanent resident refers to a person from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada and who has a work or study permit, or who has claimed refugee status (asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups). Family members living with work or study permit holders are also included unless these family members are already Canadian citizens, landed immigrants (permanent residents) or non-permanent residents themselves.

**Based on mid-point of the year (July 1, 2025 vs. July 1, 2024).

Answer to the previous trivia question: Canada’s largest company by revenue in 2024 was the Royal Bank of Canada at $134 billion.

Today’s trivia question: Which province does not have at least one of Canada’s 800 largest companies headquartered in it?